When you invite others to reflect on a past decision with you - share all of the details. Even the details you left out of your thinking, share them. If ever you had a doubt, share the doubts you had. Especially if you’re creating a decision-making tribe, the tribe owns the data - share it all. I encourage you to be transparent because the devil is in the details! The information we choose to accept because it confirms our bias, or ignore because it challenges our bias, drives a large part of our decision-making process. As a result, that information must be on the table for discussion when employing others to reflect with you. You’re going to find this to be a challenge. I do - every day! It requires vulnerability.Do you like to be wrong? No. Do you enjoy it when people illustrate how you missed something? Hardly ever, I’m sure. How do you see yourself when someone exposes your bias? Unsure, upset, unwilling to accept - all of the above? If you want to be a better decision-maker, share all of the data with your tribe. Let them press for more, and be willing to put all your cards on the table. Only then, after sharing it all, will you start to see growth within yourself. Share it all.
A weekend-warrior magician and sociologist named Robert K. Merton pioneered an idea of an epistemic community around the norm of CUDOS. Communism (data belongs to the group),Universalism (apply uniform standards to claims and evidence, regardless of where they come from),Disinterestedness (vigilance against potential conflicts that can influence the group’s evaluation), andOrganized Skepticism (discussion among the group to encourage engagement and dissent).(Reprinted from “Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All the Facts” by Annie Duke (c) 2018 by Anny Duke, p. 154)I believe that one of the biggest threats to our world, especially the corporate world, is the lack of dissent, skepticism, or a willingness to challenge belief. I’d love to build a tribe, I think I just might, of people who want to help others make better decisions. Here’s how it might look, using the above CUDOS model.Tribal leadership is to bring people together and maintain the rules. An individual presents a recent decision they made, what led to it, what facts they considered when making the decision, and would avoid sharing the results (more on this later) - this data now belongs to the group.Group members proceed to question - “What drove you to consider this fact and not another?” “What would you do differently?” “It appears your bias got the better part of you in this part, would you agree? Why or why not?” Members approach their thoughts from a “facts-only” point-of-view; they do not allow bias to enter the conversation. Each individual, set of facts seen or unseen, and all decisions receive equal, unbiased, impartial, and fair treatment. The goal is to learn from the decision-making processes of others. Also, the presenter learns from the thoughts of the questioners; a win-win! I may create a group like that. If you’re interested, let me know. There’s a possibility it could fail, but there’s also a possibility it could become an excellent experience. It’s a bet I might be willing to take.
In the same way that one goes to the gym with a buddy, create a small tribe of people to support better decision-making. Find two or four other people. Agree to connect on a semi-regular basis. Share your wins, losses, and the decisions you took. Allow your friends to question your choices, offer alternatives, and push your critical thinking to the max. Besides improving your ability to be vulnerable, you’ll see improvements with your ability to accept feedback, offer feedback, and make better decisions. Learning is better together.
When we look at the world around us, our decisions, the acts of others, and associated outcomes, we will often see them as “right” or “wrong.” Perhaps not quite absolute, but maybe? Ever watched another musician and thought, “I wouldn’t do it that way,” or, “s/he made an ‘interesting’ choice?” It’s almost as if we watch others through our lense, and our lense is always “right.” We are all entitled to opinions. Not everything we see, hear, or taste will align with our beliefs or those sets of rules that govern our world view. However, when it comes to learning from others, these beliefs can get in the way. I love watching other piano players. I can find a million things I’d like to lift from someone’s solo/style for my music. However, I have sometimes found myself making “judgmental” statements, as I above illustrated. When I make those statements, even in my head, learning stops. Learning stops because I’ve started seeing someone’s work not for what it is, but for what I think it should be. Instead of being the proverbial sponge, I am “judge and jury.” Be a sponge. Watch to learn. Suspend judgment. Absorb all you can from another.Apply your learnings to your life.Come alive.
No one likes to lose - humans are fiercely competitive. We’re wired that way - survival of the fittest. We want to do our best work, be recognized for our efforts, feel that people care about us, receive rewards for our efforts - we want to win. There’s nothing wrong with wanting to win. However, it’s not helpful to avoid acknowledging that the “drive to achieve” exists. Below are examples of statements I’ve heard from musicians describing their ideas of success.“I want to be the best session bassist in the world.““I want to be the first-call player for film scores.““I want to be the best vocalist with the cruise line.““I am the best soloist with the cruise line.” “How do I get to be the best DJ?” No one ever says, “How do I become the best finder-of-mistakes-in-good-outcomes?” **“How do I become a better learner?” **“How do I become the best at catching learning opportunities without blaming myself or others?” **“How can I, in spite of my wins, always find a way to do things better?” **Acknowledge and leverage your primal desire to win and discover how to become the best learner possible. Focus on expanding your mind so that every experience - win or lose - is a learning occasion. ** These questions were inspired by Annie Duke from her book, Thinking in Bets.
We left off with palms sweating, quick breathing, and my brain double-checking every last aspect of the individual I meant to show against the job requirements - perfect alignment. I presented the candidate. Friends, the frustration that comes from not achieving victory from a seemingly unwinnable beast is sizable. The hiring manager did not like the candidate! How? Why? What happened?! It is a fact that the candidate I put forward objective met every single test required. It is also a fact that I had a reliable process for determining whether or not the candidate would be a good fit. Lastly, it is a fact that bad luck heavily influenced my outcome. The hiring manager came to my meeting from an argument. Their low mood state, which I could not control, led them to see the world in the negative. Nothing was going to make this individual satisfied; none of my efforts mattered, and the fact that I found the person we needed was beside the point. The hiring manager’s mood was outside of my control - bad luck. I had a reasonable chance of receiving approval to make an offer - perhaps a 90% chance. On that day, I ended up winning the 10% I didn’t want. Yes, I could have taken steps to recover the meeting, I know. However, this entry is about luck - when factors outside of your control influence your outcome. In this instance, a negative influence. In spite of the bad luck, we can still find a silver lining. While “luck” heavily influenced the outcome, I know now that I could offer to schedule another meeting at a different time, or maybe change topics to something not related to my candidate, or listen to the hiring manager vent.While bad or good luck may influence your outcomes, never pass up the opportunity to learn and grow. Doing so enables you to come alive.
I’ve had moments where I’ve found the perfect candidate for an impossibly hard-to-fill position. There’s an excitement that comes over a recruiter - like a dopamine rush. I am quite sure it’s the inner desire to win the seemingly unwinnable that amps me up. Or maybe it’s the anticipated relief of being able to focus on something else? I would have welcomed an opportunity to work on another position. This particular role required several skills that one does not find in a single individual. Highly technical, artistic, creative, and flexible - this position needed someone that could flawlessly execute four different skills, and each skill requiring the equivalent education of a college degree. We needed this individual for the launch of a new program. The hiring manager hoped this new program would answer an outspoken customer need. To find this individual was to find the diamond in the rough. I found one!I can recall the anxiety leading up to the moment when I would present the musician to the hiring manager. Palms sweating, quick breathing, and my brain double-checking every last aspect of the individual I meant to show against the job requirements - perfect alignment. Then the moment of presentation.- Continued tomorrow.
Have you hit your head against the wall because your actions aren’t getting the results you’ve wanted? Go a step further, when you’ve failed to be effective, do you first blame yourself and your skill? Or do you blame that which you’re trying to change? The situation? Bad luck? Other people? The Weather? That which influences your ability to do anything but is outside of your control is “luck.” Luck has nothing to do with skill. When you win or fail, before sulking or celebrating, first reflect on the skills you brought to bear and ask yourself, “How could I do it better?“Don’t blame luck, others, or situations for that which you can easily control. Doing so will only lead to more failure. Instead, reflect. Seek out where you went wrong, ask others for feedback, allow yourself to be vulnerable, and improve. Your abilities to continuously learn from wins and losses, to seek out new knowledge, and to practice and apply new skills enables your ability to come alive.
Life is not chess. There are no absolutes. I use this example often - if life were chess and you jaywalked across the street, you’d always get hit by a car. But life is not chess. Life is full of probability. Before crossing the street, jaywalking, you notice that there are no cars in the distance on either side of you, it is probable you’ll safely jaywalk across the street. On the contrary, if there appears to be a lot of fast traffic in both directions, the probability of a safe cross is less. Depending on what you choose to do, you may be safe, or you may not. However, in either case, it was the process of making the decision that informed your choice. Think of decisions and opinions like jaywalking. When you assert your beliefs about someone or something, consider the risk of being wrong. Here’s an example.“Given the piece’s style, the composer’s intent, and my skill, if I execute my work in ‘XYZ’ manner, I’ll have a 70% probability of being successful.” Is it possible you’d mess it up? Absolutely! 30% to be exact. However, does that mean the decision was wrong? No. “Given that the audience appears to want to dance, and I have lots of upbeat music to perform, I’ll have a 90% probability of making my audience happy.” Uh oh, your audience is worn-out, and they’d rather hear a slow song. Your decision-making process led you to a choice that worked; however, there were facts not in your field of view - the audience was ready for something quiet. Give yourself some grace. Think in probability. Give yourself a margin.There will always be facts that you don’t see; that’s okay. Focus on what’s in front of you.Execute.
Yesterday I shared the importance of challenging one’s self. To do so creates clarity and shapes your beliefs. You’ll recall “beliefs” or “world views” govern our decisions. We may, or may not, accept or reject evidence to support our beliefs. When we find ourselves doubting our choices, it’s a good time to check-in. As promised, today, I’m sharing questions you can use to develop your thoughts and make better decisions. How do I know what I believe?Where did I get the information that supports my belief?From whom did I receive the information?What is the quality of my sources?How much do I trust them?How up-to-date is my information?How much information do I have that relates to my belief?What other things like this have I been confident about that turned out not to be true?What are the other plausible alternatives?What do I know about the person challenging my belief?What is their view of how credible my opinion is?What do they know that I don’t know?What is their level of expertise?What am I missing?Use these questions when you find yourself at a standstill. Here are some examples of people that might feel stuck. To those musicians in grad school and deciding if they made the right decision: “Getting a master’s degree is the best way for me to secure a secure future as a musician.” To those musicians on a cruise ship and deciding that a move back to land is a better idea: “Moving back to land-based work is the surest way to get my music out to the masses.” To those people looking to sell more of their product: “Connecting with as many people as possible will get me the social media reach I need to get ahead.” Challenge yourself regularly. Don’t shy away from what you might uncover. You formed your belief system over time as a way to keep you safe. However, as the world and your life change - your beliefs may need to be reshaped as well.